dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Noah Penda rebounds

Noah Penda: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · ORL · NBA · baseline 3.1/game (2026, 64 games)
2.8
Median
0.5-6.5
80% range
1.4-4.4
50% range
7.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.52.86.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
1.0+79%
2.0+62%
3.0+47%
4.0+30%
5.0+19%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7752 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 80.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Noah Penda player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts