dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Nolan Traore points

Nolan Traore: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · BKN · NBA · baseline 8.6/game (2026, 60 games)
8.0
Median
1.5-16.7
80% range
4.1-12.2
50% range
19.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.58.016.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+69%
10.0+37%
15.0+15%
20.0+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nolan Traore player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts