dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Marcus Garrett assists

Marcus Garrett: assistsFITTED MODEL

G · CHA · NBA · baseline 3.2/game (2025, 4 games)
3.0
Median
0.7-6.1
80% range
1.6-4.5
50% range
7.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.73.06.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+86%
2.0+68%
3.0+49%
4.0+31%
5.0+20%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9094 G assists games, our 80% range covered 80.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Marcus Garrett player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts