dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Cody Williams points

Cody Williams: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · UTAH · NBA · baseline 8.8/game (2026, 70 games)
8.2
Median
1.6-16.3
80% range
4.5-12.5
50% range
19.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.68.216.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+72%
10.0+39%
15.0+14%
20.0+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6380 F points games, our 80% range covered 80.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Cody Williams player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts