dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Blake Hinson three-pointers

Blake Hinson: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

F · UTAH · NBA · baseline 2.6/game (2026, 14 games)
2.5
Median
0.6-4.7
80% range
1.5-3.6
50% range
5.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.62.54.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+85%
2.0+62%
3.0+36%
4.0+18%
5.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6019 F three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Blake Hinson player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts