dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Maozinha Pereira rebounds

Maozinha Pereira: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · MEM · NBA · baseline 4.0/game (2025, 5 games)
3.7
Median
1.0-7.7
80% range
2.1-5.5
50% range
8.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.03.77.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+77%
4.0+44%
6.0+20%
8.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7752 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 80.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Maozinha Pereira player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts