dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Trey Murphy III assists

Trey Murphy III: assistsFITTED MODEL

F · NO · NBA · baseline 3.7/game (2026, 69 games)
3.5
Median
0.9-7.0
80% range
1.9-5.2
50% range
8.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.93.57.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+89%
2.0+72%
3.0+58%
4.0+40%
5.0+27%
6.0+17%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4060 F assists games, our 80% range covered 79.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Trey Murphy III player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts