dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jose Alvarado three-pointers

Jose Alvarado: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

G · NY · NBA · baseline 1.3/game (2026, 91 games)
1.1
Median
0.1-3.1
80% range
0.2-2.1
50% range
3.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.11.13.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+59%
2.0+28%
3.0+11%
4.0+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9454 G three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 80.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jose Alvarado player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts