dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jimmy Butler III points

Jimmy Butler III: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · GS · NBA · baseline 20/game (2026, 40 games)
19
Median
10-29
80% range
14-24
50% range
32
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

101929
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5+98%
10+91%
15+72%
20+45%
25+22%
30+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6380 F points games, our 80% range covered 80.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jimmy Butler III player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts