dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Deni Avdija rebounds

Deni Avdija: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · POR · NBA · baseline 6.7/game (2026, 77 games)
6.4
Median
2.4-11.1
80% range
4.3-8.8
50% range
12.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.46.411.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+93%
4.0+78%
6.0+55%
8.0+33%
10.0+16%
12.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7752 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 80.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Deni Avdija player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts