dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Micah Potter points

Micah Potter: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · IND · NBA · baseline 9.1/game (2026, 52 games)
8.3
Median
2.9-15.9
80% range
5.5-12.0
50% range
18.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.98.315.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
4.0+85%
6.0+71%
8.0+53%
10.0+38%
12.0+25%
14.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2610 C points games, our 80% range covered 75.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Micah Potter player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts