dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Damion Baugh rebounds

Damion Baugh: reboundsFITTED MODEL

G · CHA · NBA · baseline 3.5/game (2025, 14 games)
3.1
Median
0.9-6.8
80% range
1.9-4.6
50% range
7.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.93.16.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
1.0+89%
2.0+73%
3.0+55%
4.0+37%
5.0+21%
6.0+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7053 G rebounds games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Damion Baugh player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts