dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Josh Hart rebounds

Josh Hart: reboundsFITTED MODEL

G · NY · NBA · baseline 7.7/game (2026, 87 games)
7.5
Median
4.1-11.3
80% range
5.7-9.5
50% range
12.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

4.17.511.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+99%
4.0+91%
6.0+71%
8.0+42%
10.0+20%
12.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7053 G rebounds games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Josh Hart player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts