dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Herbert Jones assists

Herbert Jones: assistsFITTED MODEL

F · NO · NBA · baseline 2.7/game (2026, 58 games)
2.4
Median
0.4-5.3
80% range
1.3-3.8
50% range
6.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.42.45.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+83%
2.0+62%
3.0+42%
4.0+23%
5.0+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4060 F assists games, our 80% range covered 79.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Herbert Jones player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts