dfsforge / NBA forecasts / De'Anthony Melton three-pointers

De'Anthony Melton: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

G · GS · NBA · baseline 1.5/game (2026, 51 games)
1.1
Median
0.0-3.1
80% range
0.4-2.4
50% range
4.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.01.13.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+54%
2.0+30%
3.0+13%
4.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9454 G three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 80.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: De'Anthony Melton player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts