dfsforge / NBA forecasts / De'Anthony Melton assists

De'Anthony Melton: assistsFITTED MODEL

G · GS · NBA · baseline 2.6/game (2026, 51 games)
2.2
Median
0.4-5.2
80% range
1.1-3.7
50% range
6.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.42.25.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+79%
2.0+56%
3.0+34%
4.0+21%
5.0+11%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9094 G assists games, our 80% range covered 80.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: De'Anthony Melton player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts