dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Shai Gilgeous-Alexander three-pointers

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

G · OKC · NBA · baseline 1.6/game (2026, 86 games)
1.2
Median
0.1-3.2
80% range
0.6-2.5
50% range
4.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.11.23.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+66%
2.0+37%
3.0+17%
4.0+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9454 G three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 80.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts