dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Paolo Banchero rebounds

Paolo Banchero: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · ORL · NBA · baseline 8.3/game (2026, 84 games)
7.9
Median
4.0-12.7
80% range
5.9-10.4
50% range
14.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

4.07.912.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+98%
4.0+90%
6.0+74%
8.0+49%
10.0+29%
12.0+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7752 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 80.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Paolo Banchero player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts