dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Bruno Fernando rebounds

Bruno Fernando: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · TOR · NBA · baseline 3.5/game (2025, 22 games)
3.1
Median
0.8-6.8
80% range
1.7-4.7
50% range
7.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.83.16.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
1.0+87%
2.0+71%
3.0+52%
4.0+37%
5.0+22%
6.0+15%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7752 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 80.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Bruno Fernando player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts