dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Zach Collins points

Zach Collins: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · CHI · NBA · baseline 10.3/game (2026, 15 games)
9.7
Median
2.8-18.6
80% range
5.8-14.1
50% range
21.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.89.718.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+80%
10.0+48%
15.0+21%
20.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6380 F points games, our 80% range covered 80.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Zach Collins player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts