dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jalen Green assists

Jalen Green: assistsFITTED MODEL

G · PHX · NBA · baseline 3.0/game (2026, 37 games)
2.7
Median
0.4-5.9
80% range
1.4-4.2
50% range
6.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.42.75.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+81%
2.0+63%
3.0+44%
4.0+28%
5.0+17%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9094 G assists games, our 80% range covered 80.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jalen Green player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts