dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Killian Hayes assists

Killian Hayes: assistsFITTED MODEL

G · SAC · NBA · baseline 3.3/game (2026, 26 games)
3.0
Median
0.7-6.2
80% range
1.7-4.5
50% range
7.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.73.06.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+86%
2.0+69%
3.0+50%
4.0+32%
5.0+20%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9094 G assists games, our 80% range covered 80.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Killian Hayes player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts