dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jalen Brunson three-pointers

Jalen Brunson: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

G · NY · NBA · baseline 2.5/game (2026, 100 games)
2.3
Median
0.4-5.0
80% range
1.2-3.6
50% range
5.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.42.35.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+81%
2.0+59%
3.0+33%
4.0+21%
5.0+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9454 G three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 80.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jalen Brunson player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts