dfsforge / NBA forecasts / John Konchar rebounds

John Konchar: reboundsFITTED MODEL

G · UTAH · NBA · baseline 4.3/game (2026, 61 games)
4.0
Median
1.1-7.6
80% range
2.5-5.8
50% range
8.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.14.07.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
1.0+92%
2.0+81%
3.0+68%
4.0+50%
5.0+36%
6.0+21%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7053 G rebounds games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: John Konchar player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts