dfsforge / NBA forecasts / T.J. McConnell points

T.J. McConnell: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · IND · NBA · baseline 9.3/game (2026, 57 games)
8.7
Median
2.3-17.4
80% range
4.8-12.9
50% range
20.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.38.717.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+74%
10.0+42%
15.0+17%
20.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: T.J. McConnell player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts