dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Norman Powell points

Norman Powell: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · MIA · NBA · baseline 21/game (2026, 65 games)
21
Median
9-32
80% range
15-27
50% range
36
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

92132
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
10+89%
15+75%
20+54%
25+31%
30+15%
35+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Norman Powell player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts