dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jakob Poeltl rebounds

Jakob Poeltl: reboundsFITTED MODEL

C · TOR · NBA · baseline 6.9/game (2026, 55 games)
6.5
Median
2.6-11.7
80% range
4.4-9.2
50% range
13.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.66.511.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+94%
4.0+79%
6.0+57%
8.0+35%
10.0+19%
12.0+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4136 C rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jakob Poeltl player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts