dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Trey Lyles three-pointers

Trey Lyles: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

F · SAC · NBA · baseline 1.2/game (2025, 70 games)
1.0
Median
0.0-3.0
80% range
0.1-1.6
50% range
3.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.01.03.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+52%
2.0+21%
3.0+10%
4.0+0%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6019 F three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Trey Lyles player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts