dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Marques Bolden rebounds

Marques Bolden: reboundsFITTED MODEL

C · GS · NBA · baseline 3.5/game (2024, 13 games)
2.9
Median
0.1-7.7
80% range
1.2-5.2
50% range
9.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.12.97.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+62%
4.0+36%
6.0+19%
8.0+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4136 C rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Marques Bolden player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts