dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jayson Tatum assists

Jayson Tatum: assistsFITTED MODEL

F · BOS · NBA · baseline 5.7/game (2026, 22 games)
5.6
Median
2.5-9.3
80% range
3.8-7.4
50% range
10.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.55.69.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
2.0+94%
4.0+71%
6.0+43%
8.0+19%
10.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4060 F assists games, our 80% range covered 79.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jayson Tatum player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts