dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Nickeil Alexander-Walker points

Nickeil Alexander-Walker: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · ATL · NBA · baseline 20/game (2026, 85 games)
20
Median
10-30
80% range
15-25
50% range
34
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

102030
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5+99%
10+91%
15+74%
20+49%
25+26%
30+11%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nickeil Alexander-Walker player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts