dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Kyrie Irving points

Kyrie Irving: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · DAL · NBA · baseline 24/game (2025, 52 games)
24
Median
13-35
80% range
18-30
50% range
39
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

132435
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
10+95%
15+84%
20+67%
25+44%
30+24%
35+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Kyrie Irving player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts