dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Olivier-Maxence Prosper points

Olivier-Maxence Prosper: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · MEM · NBA · baseline 9.9/game (2026, 54 games)
9.3
Median
2.3-18.2
80% range
5.3-13.6
50% range
21.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.39.318.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+77%
10.0+45%
15.0+19%
20.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6380 F points games, our 80% range covered 80.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Olivier-Maxence Prosper player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts