dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Emmet Sheehan strikeouts (pitcher)

Emmet Sheehan: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · LAD · MLB · baseline 5.4/game (2026, 15 games)
5.2
Median
2.3-8.8
80% range
3.6-6.9
50% range
9.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.35.28.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
3.0+83%
4.0+70%
5.0+54%
6.0+38%
7.0+24%
8.0+15%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Emmet Sheehan player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts