dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Sean Burke strikeouts (pitcher)

Sean Burke: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · CWS · MLB · baseline 5.6/game (2026, 17 games)
5.4
Median
2.5-9.0
80% range
3.8-7.1
50% range
9.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.55.49.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
3.0+85%
4.0+72%
5.0+57%
6.0+41%
7.0+26%
8.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Sean Burke player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts