dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Braxton Garrett strikeouts (pitcher)

Braxton Garrett: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · MIA · MLB · baseline 4.9/game (2024, 7 games)
4.9
Median
2.0-8.1
80% range
3.0-6.5
50% range
9.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.04.98.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
2.0+90%
3.0+75%
4.0+62%
5.0+48%
6.0+31%
7.0+20%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Braxton Garrett player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts