dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Joey Estes strikeouts (pitcher)

Joey Estes: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · ATH · MLB · baseline 3.7/game (2024, 25 games)
3.4
Median
1.0-6.6
80% range
1.9-5.2
50% range
7.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.03.46.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
1.0+90%
2.0+74%
3.0+58%
4.0+41%
5.0+28%
6.0+15%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Joey Estes player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts