dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Nick Lodolo strikeouts (pitcher)

Nick Lodolo: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · CIN · MLB · baseline 4.2/game (2026, 10 games)
4.1
Median
1.2-7.2
80% range
2.6-5.6
50% range
8.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.24.17.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
2.0+82%
3.0+69%
4.0+51%
5.0+35%
6.0+21%
7.0+11%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nick Lodolo player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts