dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Spencer Arrighetti strikeouts (pitcher)

Spencer Arrighetti: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · HOU · MLB · baseline 5.8/game (2026, 13 games)
5.6
Median
2.7-9.1
80% range
4.0-7.3
50% range
10.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.75.69.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
3.0+87%
4.0+75%
5.0+60%
6.0+44%
7.0+28%
8.0+18%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Spencer Arrighetti player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts