dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Ryne Nelson strikeouts (pitcher)

Ryne Nelson: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · AZ · MLB · baseline 4.1/game (2026, 15 games)
4.0
Median
1.2-7.1
80% range
2.5-5.5
50% range
8.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.24.07.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
2.0+82%
3.0+67%
4.0+50%
5.0+33%
6.0+20%
7.0+11%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Ryne Nelson player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts