dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Tylor Megill strikeouts (pitcher)

Tylor Megill: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · NYM · MLB · baseline 6.4/game (2025, 14 games)
6.3
Median
3.1-9.8
80% range
4.5-8.1
50% range
10.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.16.39.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
2.0+96%
4.0+81%
6.0+55%
8.0+26%
10.0+8%
12.0+1%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tylor Megill player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts