Mike MathesonFITTED MODEL

D · MTL · NHL

8.2

Projection

2.4

Floor (p10)

15.6

Ceiling (p90)

21%

Boom (1.5x)

36%

Bust (0.6x)

7.9

Avg (last 15)

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	A	SOG	SV
2025-12-31	@ FLA	4.1	0	1	-
2025-12-28	@ TB	8.0	1	2	-
2025-12-24	@ BOS	16.6	0	3	-
2025-12-22	@ PIT	17.7	1	3	-
2025-12-21	vs PIT	2.8	0	1	-
2025-12-15	vs EDM	1.3	0	0	-
2025-12-14	@ NYR	0.0	0	0	-
2025-12-12	@ PIT	12.5	0	2	-
2025-12-10	vs TB	9.9	0	2	-
2025-12-08	vs STL	7.6	1	0	-
2025-12-07	@ TOR	6.0	0	4	-
2025-12-04	vs WPG	9.7	0	1	-
2025-12-03	vs OTT	4.1	0	1	-
2025-11-29	@ COL	4.3	0	2	-
2025-11-28	@ VGK	13.4	1	1	-

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts