Sterling ShepardFITTED MODEL

WR · · NFL

1.7

Projection

Floor (p10)

Ceiling (p90)

26%

Boom (1.5x)

60%

Bust (0.6x)

5.9

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

rushing yards · receiving yards · receptions · targets

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	Rush Yds	Rec Yds	Rec
2025 wk 14	vs NO	1.5	0	5	1
2025 wk 13	vs ARI	1.5	0	5	1
2025 wk 12	@ LAR	4.2	0	12	3
2025 wk 11	@ BUF	10.1	7	54	4
2025 wk 10	vs NE	6.1	11	20	3
2025 wk 8	@ NO	1.8	0	8	1
2025 wk 7	@ DET	7.5	0	25	7
2025 wk 6	vs SF	7.1	0	51	2
2025 wk 5	@ SEA	11.9	-5	24	4
2025 wk 4	vs PHI	4.0	6	14	2
2025 wk 3	vs NYJ	12.0	0	80	4
2025 wk 2	@ HOU	7.4	0	34	4
2025 wk 1	@ ATL	6.9	0	39	3
2024 wk 18	vs NO	2.1	0	11	1
2024 wk 16	@ DAL	4.4	14	20	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts