Tyler AllgeierFITTED MODEL

RB · ARI · NFL

5.6

Projection

Floor (p10)

Ceiling (p90)

22%

Boom (1.5x)

42%

Bust (0.6x)

7.0

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

rushing yards · carries · receiving yards · receptions · targets

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	Rush Yds	Rec Yds	Rec
2025 wk 18	vs NO	2.9	16	3	1
2025 wk 17	vs LAR	2.3	23	0	0
2025 wk 16	@ ARI	8.3	79	-6	1
2025 wk 15	@ TB	1.8	18	0	0
2025 wk 14	vs SEA	8.7	34	33	2
2025 wk 13	@ NYJ	13.5	20	35	2
2025 wk 12	@ NO	5.9	44	5	1
2025 wk 11	vs CAR	9.6	10	6	2
2025 wk 10	@ IND	17.7	57	0	0
2025 wk 9	@ NE	0.6	6	0	0
2025 wk 8	vs MIA	9.4	4	10	2
2025 wk 7	@ SF	1.6	16	0	0
2025 wk 6	vs BUF	10.8	32	6	1
2025 wk 4	vs WAS	11.1	51	0	0
2025 wk 3	@ CAR	1.4	4	0	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts