Patrick MahomesFITTED MODEL

QB · KC · NFL

17.3

Projection

Floor (p10)

Ceiling (p90)

12%

Boom (1.5x)

18%

Bust (0.6x)

20.8

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

passing yards · completions · pass attempts · rushing yards · carries

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	Rec Yds	Rec
2025 wk 15	vs LAC	13.1	189	15	0	0
2025 wk 14	vs HOU	6.3	160	59	-10	1
2025 wk 13	@ DAL	29.4	261	30	0	0
2025 wk 12	vs IND	17.1	352	30	0	0
2025 wk 11	@ DEN	13.3	276	3	0	0
2025 wk 9	@ BUF	10.5	250	5	0	0
2025 wk 8	vs WAS	23.0	299	30	0	0
2025 wk 7	vs LV	26.2	286	28	0	0
2025 wk 6	vs DET	31.5	257	32	0	0
2025 wk 5	@ JAX	26.7	318	60	0	0
2025 wk 4	vs BAL	27.3	270	5	0	0
2025 wk 3	@ NYG	13.2	224	2	0	0
2025 wk 2	vs PHI	22.1	187	66	0	0
2025 wk 1	@ LAC	26.0	258	57	0	0
2024 wk 17	@ PIT	26.0	320	12	0	0

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts