Zach ErtzFITTED MODEL

TE · · NFL

10.5

Projection

Floor (p10)

Ceiling (p90)

22%

Boom (1.5x)

32%

Bust (0.6x)

11.1

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

receiving yards · receptions · targets

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	Rec Yds	Rec
2025 wk 14	@ MIN	2.1	11	1
2025 wk 13	vs DEN	20.6	106	10
2025 wk 11	@ MIA	8.2	42	4
2025 wk 10	vs DET	9.4	54	4
2025 wk 9	vs SEA	8.6	46	4
2025 wk 8	@ KC	5.6	16	4
2025 wk 7	@ DAL	12.7	37	3
2025 wk 6	vs CHI	16.3	43	6
2025 wk 5	@ LAC	0.0	0	0
2025 wk 4	@ ATL	6.1	21	2
2025 wk 3	vs LV	6.8	38	3
2025 wk 2	@ GB	18.4	64	6
2025 wk 1	vs NYG	11.6	26	3
2024 wk 18	@ DAL	15.4	44	5
2024 wk 17	vs ATL	25.2	72	6

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts