Simone FontecchioFITTED MODEL

F · MIA · NBA

16.1

Projection

4.3

Floor (p10)

28.8

Ceiling (p90)

19%

Boom (1.5x)

27%

Bust (0.6x)

14.0

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

points · rebounds · assists · three-pointers

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	PTS	REB	AST	3PM
2025-12-30	vs DEN	3.0	3	0	0	0
2025-12-28	vs IND	6.0	2	2	1	0
2025-12-24	vs TOR	13.2	5	3	1	0
2025-12-21	@ NY	16.5	7	4	3	1
2025-12-20	@ BOS	22.0	12	2	4	4
2025-12-19	@ BKN	15.5	7	4	2	1
2025-12-16	vs TOR	12.5	3	4	2	1
2025-12-09	@ ORL	2.5	0	0	2	0
2025-12-07	vs SAC	30.8	20	7	0	4
2025-12-06	@ ORL	11.8	5	3	2	1
2025-12-04	@ DAL	19.2	8	3	2	2
2025-12-02	vs LAC	15.5	7	4	2	1
2025-11-27	vs MIL	7.5	2	2	2	0
2025-11-25	vs DAL	20.8	8	5	5	0
2025-11-23	@ PHI	13.8	6	3	2	2

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts