Payton TolleFITTED MODEL

P · BOS · MLB

16.0

Projection

3.2

Floor (p10)

28.0

Ceiling (p90)

21%

Boom (1.5x)

25%

Bust (0.6x)

14.2

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-07-01	vs WSH	-1.2	-	-	-	5
2026-06-26	vs NYY	27.9	-	-	-	7
2026-06-21	@ SEA	6.7	-	-	-	2
2026-06-16	vs TOR	13.7	-	-	-	6
2026-06-09	@ TB	4.9	-	-	-	3
2026-06-03	vs BAL	18.1	-	-	-	5
2026-05-28	vs ATL	16.3	-	-	-	7
2026-05-22	vs MIN	21.9	-	-	-	9
2026-05-16	@ ATL	17.0	-	-	-	3
2026-05-10	vs TB	13.7	-	-	-	4
2026-05-04	@ DET	29.9	-	-	-	8
2026-04-28	@ TOR	8.3	-	-	-	4
2026-04-23	vs NYY	31.1	-	-	-	11
2025-09-27	vs DET	3.6	-	-	-	1
2025-09-24	@ TOR	1.1	-	-	-	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts