Nathan ChurchFITTED MODEL

OF · STL · MLB

5.8

Projection

0.1

Floor (p10)

15.6

Ceiling (p90)

25%

Boom (1.5x)

50%

Bust (0.6x)

5.9

Avg (last 15)

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-07-02	@ ATL	16.0	1	4	2	-
2026-07-01	@ ATL	0.0	0	0	0	-
2026-06-30	@ ATL	18.0	1	4	3	-
2026-06-28	vs MIA	3.0	1	1	0	-
2026-06-27	vs MIA	0.0	0	0	0	-
2026-06-26	vs MIA	0.0	0	0	0	-
2026-06-24	vs AZ	0.0	0	0	0	-
2026-06-23	vs AZ	0.0	0	0	0	-
2026-06-22	vs AZ	15.0	2	2	1	-
2026-06-21	@ KC	11.0	1	2	0	-
2026-06-19	@ KC	12.0	1	3	0	-
2026-06-18	@ KC	0.0	0	0	0	-
2026-06-17	vs SD	5.0	1	1	0	-
2026-06-16	vs SD	7.0	1	1	1	-
2026-06-15	vs SD	2.0	0	0	0	-

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts