José CastilloFITTED MODEL

P · BAL · MLB

2.4

Projection

-2.2

Floor (p10)

6.4

Ceiling (p90)

38%

Boom (1.5x)

34%

Bust (0.6x)

2.7

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2025-09-26	@ NYY	5.3	-	-	-	1
2025-09-24	vs TB	0.6	-	-	-	0
2025-09-23	vs TB	0.9	-	-	-	0
2025-09-20	vs NYY	5.2	-	-	-	3
2025-09-18	vs NYY	9.2	-	-	-	3
2025-09-11	vs LAA	0.5	0	0	0	0
2025-09-10	vs STL	3.6	-	-	-	1
2025-09-07	@ ATL	1.6	-	-	-	0
2025-08-29	vs MIA	4.1	-	-	-	2
2025-08-25	vs PHI	2.2	-	-	-	0
2025-07-25	@ SF	7.7	-	-	-	3
2025-06-24	vs ATL	-5.8	-	-	-	0
2025-06-20	@ PHI	-0.5	-	-	-	0
2025-06-18	@ ATL	5.0	-	-	-	2
2025-06-14	vs TB	1.2	-	-	-	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts